Week 8 NFL picks: Bills unanimously taken over Bucs on Thursday night; Bengals or 49ers on Sunday?

NFL.com editors Ali Bhanpuri, Tom Blair, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice and Dan Parr will predict every game of the 2023 NFL season, using the unbeatable combo of football analysis and excessive punctuation. Check out their Week 8 picks below.

THURSDAY, OCT. 26

WHERE: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
WHEN: 8:15 p.m. ET | Prime Video, NFL+
MONEYLINE: Buccaneers: +345 | Bills: -455
SPREAD: Bills -9.5 | O/U: 43.5

Why Dan is taking the Bills: Both of these teams have fallen on hard times, with the Bills dropping two out of three games and the Bucs losing two in a row since a Week 5 bye. The difference is Tampa Bay couldn’t even win at home last week when the Falcons coughed up three fumbles in the red zone. Injury woes and a short turnaround are not a great mix for either squad coming off disappointing outings against division rivals. I just don’t see enough from the Bucs’ offense (19 points total over the last two games) to think they can go into Josh Allen’s house and beat him.

SUNDAY, OCT. 29

WHERE: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, N.C.)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
MONEYLINE: Texans: -160 | Panthers: +135
SPREAD: Texans -3.0 | O/U: 43.5

Why Ali is taking the Texans: The 2023 No. 1 pick versus the No. 2 pick (and No. 3). … Have to think Bryce Young’s competitive fire will be burning extra hot on Sunday after enduring weeks’ worth of chatter about whether his friend should’ve actually been the first QB selected in April. Hard to know the impact new play-caller Thomas Brown will have on Young and the Panthers’ offense. But even if we see an uptick in yardage, we shouldn’t expect a ton of points from Carolina. Since Week 3, DeMeco Ryans’ defense has been the epitome of bend but don’t break, ranking 27th in yards per game (376.5) but third in red zone efficiency (27.3%). Not a coincidence that his Texans have allowed the second-fewest points per game (14.3) during that span, posting a 3-1 record. Another strong defensive effort and some heady plays from C.J. Stroud help Houston climb above .500 for the first time since the team started the 2021 season at 1-0.

WHERE: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
MONEYLINE: Rams: +228 | Cowboys: -285
SPREAD: Cowboys -6.0 | O/U: 45.5

Why Gennaro is taking the Cowboys: According to the good folks at Next Gen Stats, the Cowboys boast the No. 1 pressure rate in the NFL, while the Rams rank 28th in pressure rate allowed. The biggest concern for Los Angeles’ shaky offensive line is obviously game-wrecker extraordinaire Micah Parsons, but he’s not the only concern. DeMarcus Lawrence is playing some of his best football in Year 10, while Osa Odighizuwa is breaking out in Year 3. Add in the additional pass-rushing waves Dan Quinn summons via Dorance Armstrong Jr., Dante Fowler Jr. and Sam Williams, and Dallas is primed to throw a pressure party at Matthew Stafford’s expense.

WHERE: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wis.)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
MONEYLINE: Vikings: -115 | Packers: -105
SPREAD: PICK | O/U: 42.0

Why Ali is taking the Vikings: Despite both teams owning a losing record, this NFC North battle has plenty of juice. A Vikings victory could mean the team remains intact for the stretch run, while a Packers win would keep Jordan Love from piloting the first four-game skid of his young career — a dubious streak his predecessor endured just three times over 223 starts for Green Bay. These two defenses should keep this one relatively tight. (The Vikings in a one-score game? Get outta here.) Ultimately, I think it comes down to which quarterback makes the fewest mistakes, so I’ll take the veteran passer playing at a “higher” level over the youngster still trying to find his way.

Fun fact: The Vikings haven’t lost a game by more than one score since Week 17 of last season, when they got blown out by Green Bay at Lambeau.

WHERE: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
MONEYLINE: Saints: -120 | Colts: +100
SPREAD: Saints -1.0 | O/U: 43.5

Why Tom is taking the Colts: Neither of these teams has been very consistent this year, but I’ll take my chances on the Colts’ shoulder-shimmying chaos over the Saints’ discordance. Gardner Minshew might turn the ball over a handful of times; at least Indy can also move it down the field and into the end zone, thanks to a solid collection of pass catchers and a resurgent Jonathan Taylor. Derek Carr and the rest of New Orleans’ offense looked hexed last Thursday against the Jaguars. I don’t think they’ll be able to loosen up on the road, especially if Alvin Kamara’s illness lingers.

WHERE: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Patriots: +345 | Dolphins: -455
SPREAD: Dolphins -9.0 | O/U: 46.0

Why Brooke is taking the Dolphins: The Patriots are coming off their best performance of the season, a home win over the Bills in which Mac Jones looked like a competent NFL quarterback. Can he build on that success against another division foe Sunday? It’s possible against a Dolphins defense that ranks 27th in scoring. But even so, I don’t expect the Pats to keep up with Tua Tagovailoa, Raheem Mostert and the “Blur Brothers.” Miami’s two losses have come against teams with winning records and on the road (Bills in Week 4 and Eagles this past Sunday). The Patriots are well below .500, and the game will be played in South Beach — a winning recipe for Mike McDaniel’s group. Plus, Tua is 5-0 in his career against Bill Belichick. The only other quarterback with as many wins vs. Belichick? Hall of Famer Warren Moon (5-1).

WHERE: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Jets: -155 | Giants: +130
SPREAD: Jets -3.0 | O/U: 36.5

Why Ali is taking the Jets: Get ready for a grisly, gritty and grueling defensive showdown in New York. … Somewhere in a darkened MSG film room, Tom Thibodeau is shedding a tear. The sleeping Giants have awoken in recent weeks, holding the Commanders to seven points just seven days after limiting the Bills to one of their worst offensive showings in the Josh Allen era. But basically everything Wink Martindale’s group does well, Robert Saleh’s squad does better. The Jets’ defense is relentless, opportunistic and in the business of embarrassing quarterbacks. They’ve also had an extra week to prepare and get healthy. All of that does not bode well for Big Blue.

WHERE: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Jaguars: -150 | Steelers: +126
SPREAD: Jaguars -2.5 | O/U: 42.0

Why Tom is taking the Steelers: Finishing with fewer total yards than the other guys is not exactly a proven path to success, but the Steelers are making it work — they’re the fifth team in NFL history to post a winning record through their first six games in a season despite being outgained in every contest. I tried to talk myself out of backing Kenny Pickett over Trevor Lawrence. In the end, I think the Steelers will give Lawrence just enough trouble — and the Jags’ 31st-ranked pass defense will give Pickett just enough breathing room — to tip things in Pittsburgh’s favor at home.

WHERE: Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tenn.)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Falcons: -155 | Titans: +130
SPREAD: Falcons -2.5 | O/U: 35.5

Why Gennaro is taking the Falcons: With all of the attention paid to Bijan Robinson’s availability, Desmond Ridder’s viability and Arthur Smith’s facial pliability, Atlanta’s defense isn’t getting anywhere near the love it deserves. At 4-3, the Falcons have a winning record through seven games for the first time since 2017, which is the last time the team’s D finished top 10 in points or yards allowed. The 2023 unit’s double-dipping — ninth in points, third in yards — with major credit due to first-year defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen and a bevy of high-impact free-agent additions that cover all three levels. Facing a Ryan Tannehill-less Titans offense, Atlanta’s poised to do what five of six Tennessee opponents have done this season: keep Derrick Henry below 100 yards rushing.

WHERE: FedExField (Landover, Md.)
WHEN: 1 p.m. ET | FOX
MONEYLINE: Eagles: -305 | Commanders: +240
SPREAD: Eagles -6.5 | O/U: 43.5

Why Ali is taking the Eagles: This isn’t the same Eagles team the Commanders nearly upset at the beginning of October. In fact, since giving up 34 points in that Week 4 overtime thriller, Philly ranks second overall in total defense (245.7) and tied for sixth in points allowed (17 ppg). Sean Desai’s unit has also been among the league’s best in sacking quarterbacks and limiting first downs. Fortunately for the Commanders, their strengths include protecting Sam Howell and moving the chains. Kidding, of course. Washington has allowed more sacks than any team in the league and just went 1-for-15 on third down against the Giants. Oh, the Eagles’ offense is pretty good, too.

WHERE: Lumen Field (Seattle)
WHEN: 4:05 p.m. ET | FOX
MONEYLINE: Browns: +158 | Seahawks: -190
SPREAD: Seahawks -3.5 | O/U: 38.0

Why Dan is taking the Seahawks: To give you an idea of how weird things are right now: The Browns scored 39 points last week despite having zero touchdown passes, while their top-ranked defense gave up 38 points despite forcing four turnovers. Yet, we still try to predict what will happen in these games each week. For peace of mind, I’m going to pretend as if I know P.J. Walker’s 0:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and the regression we saw from Cleveland’s defense will add up to a Seattle victory in front of the 12s on Sunday.

WHERE: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.)
WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Ravens: -420 | Cardinals: +320
SPREAD: Ravens -8.5 | O/U: 44.0

Why Tom is taking the Ravens: The Ravens have reached the 30-point mark with Lamar Jackson as their starting quarterback 24 times, according to NFL Research — and they won 23 of those games. The Cardinals aren’t allowing quite that much per game, giving up 26 points per contest. I have a feeling Jackson and Co. will be able to close that four-point gap and make this somewhat obscure stat relevant for a second straight week.

WHERE: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Chiefs: -350 | Broncos: +275
SPREAD: Chiefs -7.0 | O/U: 45.5

Why Brooke is taking the Chiefs: I’ll admit I’m an “OG” Swiftie, attending one of her very first headlining appearances back in 2008 in Sioux City, Iowa. But taking the Chiefs because Taylor Swift’s on board is lazy. Ultimately, it comes down to Kansas City holding the advantage in almost every aspect: The Chiefs boast the league’s No. 2 overall offense and a defense that has allowed just 15 points per game in 2023, second-fewest in the NFL. Then there’s the Broncos, whose offense ranks 21st in yards and 19th in scoring, while the defense sits at dead last in yards and second-to-last in scoring. Oh, and there’s the fact that Kansas City has won 16 straight against Denver. Give me the Chiefs — with or without Taylor in attendance.

WHERE: Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara, Calif.)
WHEN: 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
MONEYLINE: Bengals: +148 | 49ers: -175
SPREAD: 49ers -3.5 | O/U: 43.5

Why Dan is taking the 49ers: With Brock Purdy in concussion protocol and the well-rested Bengals boasting three wins in their past four games, it would seem unwise to sleep on Cincinnati here. Maybe that’s exactly what I’m doing. Uh-oh. I tend to believe Kyle Shanahan when he says he trusts backup Sam Darnold. The coach knows how to juggle quarterbacks. On the other hand, I’m not quite ready to trust Lou Anarumo’s run defense, at least not in this matchup. Just when it looks like these two teams are heading in opposite directions, I like San Francisco to earn a hard-fought victory at home heading into the bye week.

WHERE: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, Calif.)
WHEN: 8:20 p.m. ET | NBC, Universo, NFL+
MONEYLINE: Bears: +328 | Chargers: -430
SPREAD: Chargers -8.5 | O/U: 46.5

Why Gennaro is taking the Chargers: In each of the first two years of the Brandon Staley era, the Chargers got off to a 4-2 start. In Year 3? The inverse: 2-4. So, in addition to speculation about the heat of his seat, Staley’s facing the rare must-win game before the calendar even flips to November. Too melodramatic? Well, since 1990, 163 teams have started a season at 2-5. Just 10 recovered to make the playoffs. That’s 6.1 percent. “So you’re telling me there’s a chance!” Perhaps. But it’d probably be more prudent to just beat the visiting 2-5 team starting the undrafted rookie quarterback. At 3-4, the aforementioned playoff percentage more than triples.

MONDAY, OCT. 30

WHERE: Ford Field (Detroit)
WHEN: 8:15 p.m. ET | ABC, ESPN, ESPN Deportes, NFL+
MONEYLINE: Raiders: +328 | Lions: -430
SPREAD: Lions -8.5 | O/U: 46.0

Why Brooke is taking the Lions: Dan Campbell’s Lions were served a healthy slice of humble pie last week. You could say the same for the Raiders, who suffered a blowout loss to rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent and the lowly Bears. It’s unclear if Jimmy Garoppolo will play as he deals with a back injury, and after watching Brian Hoyer lay an egg last week, I have to believe there’s a possibility Aidan O’Connell starts the game under center. Jimmy G, Hoyer or the rookie — it won’t matter. Detroit is the better team on both sides of the ball. Plus, the Lions are averaging 31 points per game at home this season, while the Raiders have reached 20 points just once (a 21-17 win over New England in Week 6). This has get-right game written all over it for Detroit.

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Week 8 NFL picks: Bills unanimously taken over Bucs on Thursday night; Bengals or 49ers on Sunday?

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NOTES:

THURSDAY, OCT. 26

SUNDAY, OCT. 29

MONDAY, OCT. 30