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India is a country in party mode. In the midst of Diwali celebrations, the national team in their national sport is seemingly bound for glory, their hero Virat Kohli on the verge of a landmark milestone.

If the cricket gods are smiling on India, the crowning moment will come on Sunday night with captain Rohit Sharma marking an undefeated campaign by lifting the World Cup in front of 130,000 fans at a stadium named after the country’s Prime Minister.

Pressure? What pressure?

Dreams go on: India’s Virat Kohli.Credit: AP

“The expectation around India is they’ll win this World Cup,” former Australia captain Mark Taylor said. “[But] one-day cricket, on the day you can have a bad day, lose a toss and be under the pump. That pressure will be real for India, particularly for tomorrow [Wednesday] night.”

Standing in the way of the Goliaths of world cricket is the game’s David, New Zealand, armed with a weapon more dangerous than a sling: the belief from having slayed the giants twice before.

In 2019, the Black Caps eliminated India in a nerve jangling semi-final played over two days. Two years later, Kane Williamson’s unassuming men again toppled the game’s heavyweight nation, this time in the World Test Championship final.

“I love the brutality of finals and semi-finals,” World Cup winner Damien Fleming, who bowled the famous last over for Australia in the 1999 semi-final against South Africa, said.

The cast may have changed from four years ago, but the lead actors have not. Virat Kohli, chasing a 50th ODI ton, and Rohit Sharma are back, the latter having assumed the leadership from the former, so too unorthodox pace ace turned comeback kid Jasprit Bumrah after almost a year out.

Kane Williamson, the nerveless former leader who is playing only seven months after a knee reconstruction, is again standing in India’s way, along with swing king Trent Boult, who may well have the most important task in this game.

A dejected Virat Kohli with Kane Williamson in 2021.Credit: AP

Correction. That task belongs to skipper Tom Latham. Rarely in world cricket will the phrase “good toss to win” be more applicable than when Latham calls heads or tails at the middle of Mumbai’s Wankhede Stadium.

From five games, the average first innings score at this venue this tournament is 6-357 compared to 9-188. In the powerplay, it is 1-52 against 4-42.

“Those stats are really damning,” Fleming said. “If you don’t bat first, you have to break the trend. That would put a dampener on the mood.”

Passion at the next level: An Indian fan.Credit: PA via AP

Five may not be a statistically significant sample size, but it will take a brave skipper to ask the opposition to bat when batting has proven easiest, and pad up at night when the new ball has been at its most dastardly.

That was the period of the game when Afghanistan ran through Australia before Glenn Maxwell saved his team with his innings for the ages once conditions became less favourable for the bowlers.

Fleming believes the Black Caps’ best hope of causing another semi-final boilover is by the age-old formula of runs on the board, and striking with the new ball. Boult, New Zealand’s senior paceman, is the key, he said.

“Boult would have to get two or three [wickets] in the first 10 overs,” Fleming said.

“They need to get wickets in the power play, which hasn’t been as significant when teams bat first. The stats are saying in the first 10 overs they’re swinging and seaming, there’s still enough at 15 and 20 [overs]. That brings New Zealand back in.”

At a tournament where scores exceeding 300 are not safe, Taylor said a more conservative strategy with the bat could be the way to go.

“Maybe tomorrow night it doesn’t go around as much as we think it will, but if it does you have to lower the eyes a bit,” Taylor said.

“A 0-60 off 10 in the afternoon might be none or 1-40 at night – give up 20 runs because then the dew might help you. Maxwell could easily have been out three times before 35. Then the ball got damp, and it did nothing, it skidded onto the bat.

“You have to make sure you stay in the game and not bat yourself out of it in the first 10 overs.”

A home World Cup has proven to be a cakewalk for India thus far. Not since their first game, when Australia had them 3-2 and 4-20 if Mitchell Marsh had not put down Kohli, have the hosts been seriously challenged.

In their final group game, they were so far clear of the Netherlands, they used nine bowlers, affording Kohli a rare chance with the ball to take a fifth ODI wicket from 290 games.

Counter-intuitively, their dominance could be a weakness, particularly with the bat. Suryakumar Yadav and Ravindra Jadeja, at numbers six and seven, have hardly batted, facing 75 and 96 balls respectively – hardly the workload to have them primed if India are indeed at sixes and sevens in a final.

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