NFL odds, picks for Week 9: Advanced computer model loving Bears, Chiefs

Another week of NFL action is on the horizon, and there has already been movement in the Week 9 NFL odds after the trade deadline shook up rosters on Tuesday. Demaryius Thomas will flip sidelines this week after being traded from the Broncos to the Texans, and that line has moved from Broncos -2.5 to -1. Oddsmakers, however, don’t see much impact from the Lions trading Golden Tate and have moved Detroit from +5 to +4.5 against the Vikings. And Green Bay remained at +5.5 against New England despite dealing running back Ty Montgomery and safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix. With the NFL playoff picture beginning to materialize and multiple players swapping teams this week, be sure to check out the Week 9 NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer model before you lock in any of your own.

SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who have followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.

The model was a blistering 13-1 straight-up last week. Additionally, it was a strong 6-0 on all top-rated picks in Week 8, including nailing the Redskins (-1) over the Giants and the Seahawks (+3) over the Lions. That perfect mark in Week 8 improved its overall run to 68-43 on all top-rated picks. Anybody who has been following those picks is way, way up.

Now it has simulated every snap 10,000 times and its Week 9 NFL picks are in.

One of the top Week 9 NFL picks the model loves: the Chiefs (-9) cover on the road against the Browns in Cleveland’s first game under interim head coach Gregg Williams.

Cleveland moved on from Hue Jackson this week after a disastrous 3-36-1 run. An interim coach can sometimes galvanize a team, and the initial line has dropped half-a-point as bettors are considering that possibility. But the model sees a talent disparity that’s too big for Cleveland to cover.

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes goes off for over 300 yards of total offense against Cleveland’s 28th-ranked defense as Kansas City covers in almost 60 percent of simulations. The model is also calling for 55 total points, giving plenty of value to the Over (51.5).

Another pick the model loves: the Bears (-10) cover on the road against the Bills. 

The Bears opened at -8.5 before the line moved 1.5 points in their favor as oddsmakers expect a huge advantage for Chicago’s defense with Nathan Peterman starting at quarterback for Buffalo. He’s the third option for an already struggling offense after Josh Allen and Derek Anderson have both gone down with injuries. 

Buffalo signed wide receiver Terrelle Pryor this week, but the model is projecting just two catches this week for the former 1,000-yard receiver who was recently released by the Jets. Chicago covers in over half of simulations, while there’s also a slight value in the Over (37.5) in the game with the lowest projected total of Week 9.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 9? And what Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, 45.5)
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5, 49)
Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns (+9, 51)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 47.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-6.5, 54.5)
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-3, 45)
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins (-1.5, 46.5)
Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills (+10, 37.5)
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (-1, 46)
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-2, 59.5)
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (-5.5, 56.5)
Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 41)

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