Alabama vs. LSU odds, line: 2018 college football picks, predictions from computer model that called Texas’ upset

Death Valley at night offers one of the premier settings for college football. You can expect even more magic on Saturday when Alabama comes to town to take on LSU. One of the most highly-anticipated games on the Week 10 college football schedule kicks off at 8 p.m. ET on CBS. The top-ranked Crimson Tide are 14.5-point favorites over the No. 4 Tigers in the latest Alabama vs. LSU odds after the line opened at 14. However, a revved-up crowd could be a major factor as Ed Orgeron and LSU look to slow down Tua Tagovailoa and Alabama. Before you make any Alabama vs. LSU picks and predictions, you’ll want to check out what the advanced computer model at SportsLine projects for the game.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. Over the past three years, this proprietary computer model has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated point-spread picks.

The model made some huge calls in Week 9, including nailing Oklahoma State’s outright upset of No. 6 Texas. It also was all over Georgia (-6.5) covering against Florida, and recommended California (+12) against Washington, as well as Kentucky (+7) against Missouri. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, the model has simulated every possible play for Alabama vs. LSU 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you the model is leaning towards the Under, and it has also locked in a strong against the spread pick that hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

The model knows that in this game, the formula for LSU is relatively clear: Just as the Tigers have all year, they have to win the turnover battle and use their defense to create premium scoring opportunities.

LSU quarterback Joe Burrow only has a 118.2 quarterback rating, but he’s still helped the team by not turning the ball over. In fact, he’s thrown just three interceptions all season. Combine that ball security with a dynamic defense and LSU is +12 in turnover differential. That was on full display in the last major test for the Tigers, when they turned Georgia over four times and committed none of their own on their way to a dominating 36-16 win.

However, that’s easier said than done against Alabama, and a cover is no guarantee.

Expect Alabama to try to wear down LSU’s defense with its versatile running game. Najee Harris, Damien Harris, Brian Robinson Jr. and Joshua Jacobs have all rushed for at least 240 yards this season. The quartet will try to gash an LSU rushing defense that has allowed at least 200 yards rushing in two of its last three games. 

Combine that with what quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Tagovailoa add on the ground and you have six potential ball carriers for LSU to account for. An effective rushing attack will eventually open things up for Alabama’s lethal vertical passing game.

So which side of the Alabama vs. LSU spread cashes in nearly 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Alabama vs. LSU you need to jump on, all from the model that has returned over $4,000 in profit for $100 bettors.

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